Monday, August 25, 2025

Additions, Stability, and Prosperity

A good way to keep track of financial conditions in mid-century America is to start from the knowledge that the percentage of people below the  poverty level was 49% in 1940 and 40% in 1949. This would be the end of the Great Depression, to the early years of the Baby Boom.  Prosperity did not start immediately after the war. There were not enough housing and jobs for the returning soldiers and sailors - women had a lot of them, and until they married and their husbands found work they would be foolish to leave them. Therefore rents were higher and wages were lower. This gradually improved because there were lots of men with high confidence and maturity who were willing to do things for themselves, having just done something for the rest of us, and women who had both more skills and more confidence, combined with a desire to get married and have what was considered a stable, normal, life.  

People my age immediately mentally fit their own childhoods and their parents into this.  To a lesser extent we consider our grandparents' experiences. Yet in both cases, we know much more about how those stories ended than how they began. We are fairly automatic in comparing those national norms to the families in our towns and neighborhoods, and perhaps our cousins as well. Yet even when we were there, we don't get the full picture.  As Garrison Keillor once wisely pointed out in his story "Hog Slaughter," we believe times were simpler then because we were children, and our needs were looked after by others.  But it wasn't simpler for those others, not a bit. 

There is a lot of online complaining these days of how easy the Boomers and Greatest Generation had it financially when one compares it to today. House prices look so low! Well, yes, but lots of people lived in apartments, mobile homes, and even boarding houses and tenements, remember?  If houses were so cheap  and wages were so comparatively good, why didn't everyone have one? Housing prices went up dramatically in many places around 2020 and remained high. To young people, it must seem as if the goal posts have been moved. But the ratio of housing prices to wages was comparable to now from 1978-88, and was even much worse 1980-84.  There was another peak 2004-07 nearly as high as now. Three things are driving the false impression of unprecedented high house prices: not understanding overall inflation clearly, failing to account for interest, taxes, and maintenance, and surprisingly, the historically low, affordable ratios from 2010-2020. That really is enough to account for the resentment, but I have some things to add.

Those houses built in the 50s - 80s aren't the same houses now.  They have additions - garages, bedrooms, dormers, porches, whole floors, outbuildings, pools, paved driveways, bay windows, fences and stonework, breezeways - and that's just the exteriors. They have refinished basements, kitchens that are not just maintenance replacements, but significant upgrades, better bathrooms, better heating and especially cooling systems. A woman a little older than me remarked to her daughter-in-law recently that she could tell the neighborhood was stable because so many of the houses had additions. I had not thought of that, but it is true that people add on rooms for living there, not for resale. Stability is also a kind of wealth. Related to this is what I noted at the beginning.  We all know the later story of our grandparents, parents, and even our own houses, and this is true for our children and grandchildren as well. They may not expect a house as good as their parents', but they do want something that is about halfway along the progress line right out of the gate.

Let me add that I have lived in terrible houses and driven terrible cars. It doesn't much matter. 

 

12 comments:

  1. There is a lot of online complaining these days of how easy the Boomers and Greatest Generation had it financially when one compares it to today.

    Perhaps the complaining is just for sport. Early life for Boomers and the Greatest Generation is just to different to comprehend.

    My dad fought the Nazis, and I just got on Medicare.

    My dad, with help from my uncle, build their house, a tiny two bedroom ranch, in 1950. Mom, dad and two babies lived in the garage until the roof was on the house, then they moved up when the interior was done. In the next 20 years, two additions had been added to the house.

    Dad's hobbies were fixing the house, cars or working in the garden. Mom's hobbies were making quilts, making some kind of braided rugs from old clothing and canning.

    There was just nothing to do in outer-ring suburbs until about 1975. By having productive leisure activities, you'd have more stuff and live more comfortably.

    For Boomers, the stock market was on fire during the Reagan years. If a Boomer didn't get swept up in the excesses, but could be smart about investing, over time, the wealth would build. Buy a house with good bones, learn to do some work yourself, fix it up, and you'd make out when you sold it.

    My nieces and nephews don't want a house if they aren't married with children. If they want a house, they want one that is three-bedroom with central air and a reasonable yard in a non-threatening neighborhood. It must be move-in ready, with no immediate work needed.

    They'd rather have no stuff, than hand-me-down old stuff. Their spare time goes to social media, rather than fixing stuff. They both work, so you can't blame them.

    There was a time when everybody was poor when they were in college. Not poor-poor, but crammed into old dorms or shitty, off-campus housing. My roommate's dad ran a company and owned three airplanes, but he ate ramen noodles and worked on campus like the rest of us.

    That changed in the 1990's as universities started jacking up the price and competing for students. Everything got much nicer.


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  2. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/the-household-debt-to-income-ratio-and-house-prices-in-the-us-19502017?time=1952..latest

    The household debt to income ratio was 35.76 in 1950. House prices start being tracked in 1975 on this chart. At that point it was 17.62. (household debt to income ratio was 62.68 in 1975).

    In 2016 household debt to income ratio is 105.2. Home price index is 115.11.

    So, I venture to say that yes, the Boomers and greatest generation had it much easier financially than today.

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  3. Student debt is non-dischargeable in bankruptcy, as of the Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act of 2005.

    Cash for Clunkers removed many used cars from the market. The average price for a used car is now near $30,000. It is also alleged that the financing deals offered can be disadvantageous: https://www.consumerreports.org/money/car-financing/many-americans-overpay-for-car-loans-a8076436935/

    You could not buy the houses offered in 1950 today. The building code is drastically different. You need a mortgage to afford the house, in order to get a mortgage you need title insurance, the house has to meet code, etc.

    I am certain modest houses would fly off the market, if they were on offer today. The lowest priced houses that are not tear downs sell very quickly. However, when a building lot is $400,000, the new houses are much more expensive than they used to be just to cover the builders' costs.

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    1. Just to note, student loans actually were put in a different category than other loans for bankruptcy purposes starting in 1970s. They were made presumptively non dischargeable under the bankruptcy reform act of 1978, and the rules have been tweaked ever since. The 2005 update made it explicit this applied to private loans as well, because some courts were confused about private loans vs federal loans. It’s notable that you actually can discharge them still, it’s just a much more rigorous (and expensive) process than most debt so it’s not normally used. The history and rationale behind Section 523(a)(8) is here: https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R45113

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  4. Housing was cheap in the 30s, but my father and his siblings considered that they'd won the lottery if they found jobs paying 75 cents to a dollar an hour. They all 4 still managed to get college degrees and establish stable middle-class lives.

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    1. The BLS inflation calculator tells me that $0.75 in 1930 is the equivalent of $14.17 today. College tuition has been increasing at rate higher than the rate of inflation for a very long time.

      There is also the compounding effect that today's high school students' parents may still have their own student debt.

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    2. I suspect the $0.75 plum jobs were more like the mid-30s or even late 30s, when the four siblings (my father, the youngest, being born in 1920) would all have been teenagers or in college. Wages probably rose quite a bit as the country clawed its way out of the Depression.

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    3. My grandmother would tell stories of her youth. One story was that when a family member moved away, you would assume that you would never see them in person again, because travel was so difficult. Another was that any furniture you bought would be yours for life. There wasn't even the concept of buying a "new bedroom set" when you got bored of what you had.

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  5. Fascinating stuff and excellent comments. The gulf between the generational expectations seem insurmountable. I keep up a subtle campaign to make sure my boy knows that he will not step out of school into a 6 bedroom house in the suburbs and that he can expect to spend quite a few years building up the down payment on a house and that is the starter house and not the house of his dreams.
    It does suck though to be living on the edge of one of our formerly great cities that like the rest has seen half to 2/3s of the population leave and leave behind housing that would have been elegant beyond your dreams except they got hit by the inner city blight and from that there is no comeback. This is not the land of gentrification, not even close.

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  6. For home affordability, I was working largely from the following info, though I did see a few other sites that weren't telling me exactly what I needed. https://dqydj.com/historical-home-affordability/. I mistakenly said "around 2020" when "2022" wou8ld have been more accurate.

    As for student loans, I considered that less relevant because it affects only a minority of people, and has a large voluntary aspect to it, even though the cultural pressure makes it less voluntary.

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  7. In the 20 years between completion of high-school and attaining my last degree, I was constantly amazed by the high limit credit-card offers that continuously came in my mail. I always wondered what impediment stood in the way of paying down non-dischargeable student loans using dischargeable debt from Visa and Mastercard, and THEN filing for bankruptcy protection.
    I have many students and recent college graduates as work colleagues, and the pressure of the debt of student loans is very salient in their conversations about their life-decisions (housing choice, marriage, childbearing, career, choosing what city to live in). But AVI has a good point that while this cohort my be the vast majority of the 22-30 year-olds that I interact with at such a level, only 35% to 40% of 20-30 year olds in the country have student loan debt at all.
    HMS Defiant's comment reminds me of a framed photo collage that was hung near the foot of the basement stairs during my childhood, showing a snapshot from the street of each house and apartment-building that my parents had lived-in since marriage. Many were on main roads near relatives we visited annually, so even as children we knew just how tiny the apartments were, and just how unclassy the locations were before the children came along.

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  8. Grandmother, hell! That was our furniture! My mother remarried to man who was becoming wealthy and got a lot more new bedroom sets - and new kitchens, etc than we did. My grandmother's house and furniture were occasional upgrade but quite proud of it, as both she and my grandfather had grown up quite poor. Same on the other side.

    All this has sparked discussions with Bethany and with my children, and an interesting podcast where Boyscast - who I expected to be Joe Rogan sorts but are much smarter - interview Rob Henderson. Recommended if you can stand that much testosterone-infused commentary. I have a new idea I am going to post about soon.

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