tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19305198.post7196220512368611570..comments2024-03-27T03:19:11.216-04:00Comments on Assistant Village Idiot: PredictionsAssistant Village Idiothttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01978011985085795099noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19305198.post-67358287701656050152016-09-21T21:27:03.922-04:002016-09-21T21:27:03.922-04:00I have a half-entertained metaphysical theory that...I have a half-entertained metaphysical theory that acts as a kind of opposing theory to the collapse of super-positions from observation. I theorize that the one thing that the future cannot be is whatever anyone expects it to be. It must be, in at least some small way, something no observer has imagined.Grimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07543082562999855432noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19305198.post-40680700573558588752016-09-21T20:48:02.988-04:002016-09-21T20:48:02.988-04:00Sorry :-) Prediction is very difficult, especiall...Sorry :-) <a href="http://www.larry.denenberg.com/predictions.html" rel="nofollow">Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.</a> Given the number of factors in play in even a simple contest, even predictions a year down the road are dicey. It's not very likely that your competitor will die of a heart attack, or that a Korean firm will go bust and take down a critical supplier, or that somebody in Tel Aviv will come up with a better process, but the chance of all these sorts of things NOT happening can get kind of small. (1-\epsilon)^N ...jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01792036361407527304noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19305198.post-64252863838133287182016-09-18T23:37:40.342-04:002016-09-18T23:37:40.342-04:00James didn't enjoy "Courtship Rite"-...James didn't enjoy "Courtship Rite"--a great disappointment to me!--but that was a science fiction novel one of whose themes was a political structure in which one achieved power by making the most accurate predictions. We already have a system in which the ability to make accurate predictions about the market is a path to riches.Texan99https://www.blogger.com/profile/10479561573903660086noreply@blogger.com