Tuesday, April 23, 2024

Here I Am

From "Dirty Rotten Scoundrels"


Would ya look at that coffered ceiling,
Look at that chandelier.
Excuse me but how I'm feeling
IS a hundred-proof.
I could raise the roof.
I'm so happy to be here.
I've been kind of missing
Mom and Daddy,
Sort of in a spin since Cinncinatti.
The morning flight, a major bore
But then they open the cabin door
And zoot alors-
Here I am!

Lord knows I had the will
And the resources
But Mom and Dad kept saying
"Hold your horses."
I guess those ponies couldn't wait-
Pardon me folks but
They've left the gate
I may be late, but
Here I am!

Ah,
The way to be, to me, is French
The way to say "La Vie" is French
So here I am, Beaumont Sur Mer, a
Big two weeks on the Rivier-a.
If I'm only dreaming
Please don't wake me.
Let the summer sun
And Breezes take me.
Excuse me if I seem jejeune,
I promise I'll find my marbles soon

But everywhere I look
It's like a scene from a book.
Open the book and
Here I am!

I mean
The air is French
That chair is French
This nice sincere sancerre is French
The skies are French
The pies are French
Those guys are French
These fries are French!
Pardon me if I
Fly off the handle,
No place else on earth
Can hold a candle

So, Veni Vidi Vici, folks
Let's face it,
Je suis ici, folks!

Excusez-moi
If i spout-
I'm letting my
Je n'sais qoi out.
I'm sorry to shout but

Here I am!

Dog in a Cat Family

Writing about depression, I recalled a case from around 1987. It doesn't illustrate anything I just wrote about particularly, it's just interesting. 

A man in his late 30's came in, a biker who had attempted suicide. He was extremely discouraged over the first 48 hours, and we were concerned. That age and cultural fit usually bounced back quickly, maybe too quickly, insisting that nothing was really wrong and we were treating him unfairly and keeping him from his life by holding him. Those folks are generally okay for quite a while.  There is usually a next time, because denying reality often has payback, but I had already read a few histories of people who has depression and suicide attempts every ten or fifteen years, but were generally able to hold jobs, have friends, raise families. But this guy was a first attempt at 37, lucky he didn't die, and not arguing with us about leaving.

It's an open question whether the Holy Spirit was speaking through me on this one. His wife visited and I had a family meeting to meet her and discuss the future. He asked her rather plaintively "Did any of the Disciples call?"  No, she had to say.  Mark's wife had called, but none of the guys in his club. 

"I've been thinking,"  I said, which was a lie, because I had not had this thought until that very moment. Can the Holy Spirit lead off with a lie like that?  It doesn't sound right, y'know? On the other hand, it felt like no thought of mine and it eventually worked.  And perhaps one could stretch a point and say I had been thinking it in the last few seconds, anyway, or that it was just a manner of speaking to soften any possible lecturing tone. You be the judge. "I don't think you're a motorcycle guy.  You just don't feel like one.  You feel more like a classic cars guy." His wife looked surprised, and said directly to him "Well, the only other people who have called were Jerry and Tom.  And your sister." He nodded, as if considering.

I looked back and forth between the two of them. "Am I right in thinking that Jerry and Tom are classic car guys?" He nodded again. "Maybe I've just been a dog in a cat family."  It was a good saying, and I've kept it. It doesn't say that dogs are bad or cats are bad, just that they aren't in the same family. "I used to be more of a classic cars guy. I've still got a lot of the tools." The next day he told me that he'd already had good offers on both his bikes. He was chipper, upbeat. I told him not to burn his bridges behind him and to say nice things to the Disciples he had ridden with.

I saw him almost a decade later at a downtown road rally with his 1958 Chevy Impala. He recognised me before I did him.  We had a nice conversation and I told him to say hello to his wife for me. There was no Great Moment, no movie-version Heartfelt Thanks or anything like that.  It would have seemed embarrassing to both of us, I think. I was glad that he looked okay.

I don't usually think of the Holy Spirit operating in terms of "what kind of guy are you?" But, well, suicidal.  And it worked.  And I swear those thoughts were not anything of mine.  I still don't know what I'd mean by a biker versus a classic cars guy.

Crusades

The crusade was a late, limited, and unsuccessful imitation of the jihad. Bernard Lewis

The Weight of Glory

Ben used to work with a Methodist pastor who thought it would be good if the Christian Church could add to the scriptures over time. As his nomination from the 20th C was "Letter From Birmingham Jail," I think he has effectively illustrated what can go wrong with such things, as the MLK essay is a political document that draws from scriptural ideas.  Not the same thing, Binky.

The Roman Catholics have something a bit like adding to scripture in the Church Fathers and some of the great lights in Church history; the Episcopalians have "tradition" in their three-legged stool; the Methodists similarly have their quadrilateral. There have been Calvinists who have urged greater attention to Calvin's explanation of the Scriptures than to the Bible itself (too many Puritans in that group), and all groups can get overfond of their Small Catechism, or the volumes of Ellen G. White, or whatever.  "Our faith is built on nothing less, than Scofield's Notes and Scripture Press." 

Here is my nomination from the 20th C, The Weight of Glory, a sermon delivered by CS Lewis in 1941. Scroll down to page 13. See if that works.

There is a YouTube audio version

Monday, April 22, 2024

Long Time Coming

It has been a long time since I posted an ABBA video. The current audience may not have heard the background: Disco came in just as I was leaving college and getting out of the Top 40 experience, so ABBA always seemed a bit risible to me, especially the costumes. When I started a blog 30 years later, I put up ABBA stills and videos with heavy irony.

But I came to like them. Be careful what you make fun of.



Links from 2007

I find that my standards are uneven on these repostings.  Sometimes I think nearly all should be reposted in full, at other times I just think they are interesting and worth a link.

The elections of 1958 changed the country, for very little reason

Discussing the War - Sir James Barrie has an amusing scene about that 

Commonalities of Conspiracists -Some things never change

Relatedly, The NH Tax Protestors.

When small language problems bother me.

My caseload was a little more extreme than usual that week. 

 

Does Depression Exist?

From The Studies Show* again, which provides good material episode after episode, Does Depression Exist? (Transcript available)

I usually avoid the topic, not because there are no valid questions in the area, but because the valid questions are seldom asked,  and one ends up arguing against the same half-truths (or quarter truths) with your own three-quarter truths, so more heat is generated than light. On other sites I might enter into a discussion briefly, but I tend not to put it up here, because once it's happening at my cocktail party I rather have to be involved.

But this episode is good enough that I believe we can invite the vampire over the threshold this time. Yes, there are significant problems in defining and treating many mental illnesses, depression being among the worst. The short version is that the measurements are crude and don't seem to have been improved in years, and the treatments are only partly successful. 

One of the reasons that we say that intelligence is a real trait which can be somewhat measured is that when we look at many things which might go into that, we find that they are correlated. We find that the people who compute efficiently also compute quickly, also have high vocabularies, also catch on quickly to new ideas, have better memories, organise things spatially, see connections between ideas, etc.  There is still some variation, but there is a clear trend that we are observing a something. This is also true of depression, but much less so. There are usual symptoms we might associate with "being depressed" right off the top of our head, such as sad mood, less enjoyment of activities, poor sleep, poor appetite, less energy. The questions on the tests come at these basic ideas in different ways. One would think that a paper and pencil test might be able to ask things in a repeatable straightforward way, but one of the things we have learned is that depressed people don't think too hard about the answers sometimes. If you have ever taken a test that seems to be asking the same questions with maddening frequency, this is why. You ask if they have been crying more often, and they say no.  You ask if they have been getting less enjoyment out of activities they usually like and they say no. You ask if they have been more easily discouraged lately and they say no. Then you ask if they have been feeling more guilty, ruminating on past sins or bad decisions and the light goes on for them.  Yes, yes, they have, and suddenly they want to go back to those earlier questions, because come to think of it, they haven't been enjoying things as much. "Now that you mention it, I have had a harder time getting out of bed these last five weeks, even though work isn't really more difficult that usual."

The thing that is often wrong with the tests is that they are only going to give you an approximate measure at best, but people doing research have to treat an average answer of 21 at quite different from an average answer of 23.  Over a few thousand people, this is true.  But for you, sitting in front of the doctor, it's going to be +/- 4 points that are not that meaningful. 

Next up, CBT, SSRI's, SSNI's, energising or atypical antidepressants, coaching, trauma-sensitive therapy - all of these seem to help some.  Combos are often better. So why bother if it's only a little?  Because with depression, a little improvement is often enough.  We are remarkably resilient, and if we have been soldiering on when every morning feels like an oppression, even a minor lift can be huge. One of the toughest things to measure, but generally agreed to be important is the ability to rally temporarily when the chips are down. Even very depressed people can suck it up and say "It's my daughter's wedding.  No one is going to see a flicker of depression in me this weekend.  I'll collapse Monday."

One can immediately see that issues of character, of training, of duty are huge confounders when measuring depressive symptoms under such circumstances. 

But internally, we know that's what we are doing. We feel worse than we did three months ago. We have worse mood, less energy.  We call it depression because that's the word we have for it.  But all these symptoms exist on a continuum, and they are fairly evenly distributed.  The line graphs for infection show a large hump on the left-hand side, a smaller hump far, far up the scale. It's not a continuum. But for depression, there are similar numbers of people at scores of 20, 21, 22...27.  We draw lines and say "You have severe depression. You have moderate depression.  You don't have depression." 

Tangent:  I have written often over the last few years about autism/Asperger's/ASD symptoms and these are analogous. If we took an imaginary 1-10 scale for autism, it is not the case that almost everyone is at 1-3 (as would be true with infection) and there is a blip of autistic people at 8-10. It is all more level and gradual than that.  Even more, I have come to favor the histogram approach. It's messy. We all have some of it.  Some of us clearly have lots of it. We may eventually be able to narrow this down to ten separate axes that interact with each other, but at present, what we have are moderately-associated traits.

So too with depression. We all recognise that there are times we feel worse than others, and unfortunately sometimes much worse. It may or may not be related to an identified cause, such as grief or getting fired, but it's clearly there. At a certain point, we say of ourselves or of others, "this looks like depression." But it's not necessarily one thing.

Of these many symptoms, I was most familiar with dealing with those whose condition was very bad, enough to be suicidal or to stop caring for oneself altogether. I am therefore not a particularly good judge of mild depression.  My brother lived with us for six months before I came to and said "Y'know, you're depressed, and I am sorry I didn't put two and two together before." While there are collections of symptoms, it can often be one thing which is bringing on the others.  Insomnia is the most notorious of these. Your problem was originally insomnia. But now you have four problems, of irritability, discouragement, poor appetite, anhedonia. We may over the next decades learn to just break it all down into six distinct, interactive symptoms and treat each separately, calling none of them depression.

At the moment I have an unusual situation of being prescribed a chemically-abrasive cream for a week by the dermatologist. It feels like a sunburn, and as if all my life-force is being diverted to fixing my skin. I don't focus well, I am tired and easily discouraged. If by some chance I were taking a common depression test there is a good chance that I would score higher than usual on it, perhaps even high enough to red-flag a professional who saw the numbers that I needed some attention.  I would be called depressed. A new observer would wonder whether I was depressed because I look like an albino raccoon. But I don't think that is bothering me much.  I accepted that my modeling career was over many decades ago. Yet I feel depressed. Yet I know that i am not really depressed, and will be better in a week when my skin has healed.  My energy will not be directed to skin-fixing.

*Sidebar changed

Sunday, April 21, 2024

Anonymous Donors

I can see how this would definitely be true for some people. The Signal-burying Game. 

Abstract:  People sometimes make their admirable deeds and accomplishments hard to spot, such as by giving anonymously or avoiding bragging. Such ‘buried’ signals are hard to reconcile with standard models of signalling or indirect reciprocity, which motivate costly pro-social behaviour by reputational gains. To explain these phenomena, we design a simple game theory model, which we call the signal-burying game. This game has the feature that senders can bury their signal by deliberately reducing the probability of the signal being observed. If the signal is observed, however, it is identified as having been buried. We show under which conditions buried signals can be maintained, using static equilibrium concepts and calculations of the evolutionary dynamics. We apply our analysis to shed light on a number of otherwise puzzling social phenomena, including modesty, anonymous donations, subtlety in art and fashion, and overeagerness.

I wonder how widespread this is, and hope it doesn't include me.

Saturday, April 20, 2024

Indo-Europeans

The Genetic Origin of Indo-Europeans

I don't want you to think I understand this stuff much.  I read through and my eye lights upon parts that I completely get, while I search in a lot of the remainder for hooks to remember things by.  I thought I was pretty well up on the various deep tribes under discussion in Eurasia, such as Caucasian Hunter Gatherer (CHG) or Ancestral North Eurasian (ANE) or Early European Farmers (EEF) - (think Otzi in the Tyrolean Alps), but they have multiplied while I slept and I have to go back over each set of initials and what they mean and where they fit to even get to the next paragraph now.  The genetics is getting very granular now, at a level unimaginable even 20 years ago.

In the link above, the following comes in at page 27.  You have to squint, (clicking enlarges) but it shows how the Pre-Yamnaya were still pretty localised around the Lower Volga, but within a very few generations were found (and likely dominant) across a wide range. This is somewhat as predicted in David Anthony's The Horse, The Wheel, and Language, which we have discussed here before, but the evidence seemed to point more to the river valleys in Ukraine, the Dneistr and the Dneipr. This is a pretty big change, considering. When I was first studying this as an undergraduate there was still considerable opinion that the Urheimat of the Indo-Europeans was in Western Poland, and Pripet Marshes (Belarus) were considered a rather daringly eastern theory. Yet the truth was out there, as they say.


The origin and spread of the first speakers of Indo-Anatolian languages. Different terminologies exist to designate the linguistic relationship of Anatolian and Indo- European languages. The traditional view includes both within an “Indo-European” (IE) group in which Anatolian languages usually represent the first split. An alternative terminology, which we use here, names the entire linguistic group “Indo-Anatolian” (IA) and uses IE to refer to the set of related non-Anatolian languages such as Tocharian, Greek, Celtic, and Sanskrit. Dates between 4300-3500 BCE have been proposed for the time of IA split predating both the first attestation of the Hittite language in Central Anatolia (post-2000 BCE) and the expansion of the Yamnaya archaeological culture (post-3300 BCE). We identify the Yamnaya population as Proto-IE for several reasons... 

The genetics of the Corded Ware and Beaker cultures are increasingly confirmed as mostly Yamnaya. 

The Yamnaya culture stands as the unifying factor of all attested Indo-European languages. Yet, the homogeneity of the Yamnaya patrilineal community was formed out of the admixture of diverse ancestors, via proximal ancestors from the Dnipro and CLV clines (Fig. 2e). Yamnaya and Anatolians share ancestry from the CLV Cline (Fig. 2e,f), and thus, if the earliest IA language speakers shared any genetic ancestry at all—the possibility of an early transfer of language without admixture must not be discounted—then the CLV Cline is where this ancestry must have come from. 

Also, you might notice that the dates keep getting moved farther back.  Much farther than when I was an undergrad, but that has slowed considerably and there is now evidence from the other direction of dates which must simply be too early.  We are narrowing it down and getting more precise. One of the things that is significant about this is that it is a very large kick in the teeth to the Anatolian hypothesis of IE origin, and even the hybrid hypothesis. I noted the new evidence for the hybrid hypothesis less than a year ago, and only six weeks later was holding my hands up going "Wait a minute. It's not holding up very well already." Genetics really is moving things along in this field that quickly. We can now see more clearly when each group came in to ultimately create the group we called Yamnaya, and we increasingly treat the terms Indo-European and Yamnaya as identical.

The idea has been around and treated with some grudging respect for decades, as it is essentially the Kurgan Hypothesis which Marija Gimbutas set into order in the 1950s from earlier evidence. But because many wanted something else to be true (too long to discuss) and Gimbutas had added in a favorite fillip that proved unsustainable, that it had overrun an essentially peaceful and matriarchal society in Europe, so it was made to sit at the children's table for a long while. It is now the 800-lb gorilla in the room. 

The overrun society was also highly patriarchal and violent, just a notch less so than our utterly insane ancestors in the Branze and Eneolithic ages. There is an occasional grave of a high-status woman.

But in related news, it may not be that roving bands of young men proving their worth by genocidal raids with capture of women (Not child slaves so much.  Those are hard to transport over distance on land. Water works better.) that wiped out the farmers in place in Europe (and Central Asia, and the Indus Valley). According to Kristian Kristiansen (interview by Razib Khan), the Yamnaya also carried the plague.  And not a milder version that only created a moderate advantage, as was initially expected on the basis of Northern European and Scandinavian graves, but full on Black Death that wiped out 40% of the invaded, and as many as 10% of even the invaders themselves. Even they had only slight immunity. 

Disease is increasingly recognised as a huge factor in migration and population replacement. Multiple sclerosis seems to go back millennia, as it is an over-response of an immune system that was living with animals 24/7 on the Steppes, as opposed to daily but more limited contact of farmers, hunter-gatherers, and foragers. The immune system is looking for work, and without microbes, goes after its host.  Something similar is true of Cystic Fibrosis, which also turns out to be ancient.  

Thursday, April 18, 2024

Fonts

 Earl Wajenberg recommends her video about algorithms as well.

Her voice is a bit like bskings.

Wednesday, April 17, 2024

Firefly Blinks

Reposted from 2007

We have used the analogy of firefly blinks at our house for many years now…

Fireflies blink in simple patterns to identify to each other who is of the “same kind” for mating. This figures prominently in one of the Madeline L’Engle books, I think Arm of the Starfish, when one (human) character tries to trick another into believing she is of the same kind as him, on the same side in the spiritual battle. His sister uses the firefly image to warn him that the girl is not as she seems. Because we have made choice-of-wife a large topic in our family since the boys were small, the question of whether a girl has the right number of firefly blinks has been confined to romantic caution. I think the analogy applies more generally for the tribes, however. People get a sense of how many blinks you have.

The best story we have of this is (of course) Benjamin’s. Years ago he was quite taken with a girl at youth group, and to understand each other better, they agreed to read what had been the other’s favorite book as a child. This must have been Benjamin’s idea, as subsequent discussion revealed that she was not a girl who would ordinarily give, uh, testimony about herself via literary means. Ben chose Watership Down, which he had not so much read as repeatedly absorbed into his personality as a child. (Tangent: now that he is a filmmaker, if they ever remake the movie, Ben’s is the only opinion you will ever need whether you should see it.)

Ben may have suspected something was up, which is why he arranged this game to begin with. The girl asked him to read A Dog Named Kitty. This is not only from the hackneyed genre of noble-canine-croaks, it is a stunningly bad example. The dog does not die in the penultimate chapter, when he successfully fights off a wild something to save a defenseless something. The dog dies pointlessly by accident in the last chapter when a piece of pipeline falls off a truck on him. (Those darn oil companies!).

Cute as she was, the girl clearly did not have the right number of firefly blinks, which Ben reluctantly accepted. John-Adrian observed her lose her temper and hold a grudge over something small a few years later and was grateful the relationship with his brother had gone no deeper. She was not only the wrong subspecies, but a difficult person to boot.

I think the younger boys, who came here from Romania as teenagers, give off very mixed firefly blinks. Good thing they’re handsome, with very sexy accents.

Full Circle

A cartoon from 35 years ago has stuck in my head. I knew I liked it, and suspected that as I aged, I would agree with it more. An old man sits in a beach chair next to his wife, scowling out to sea. "I've come full circle. Things are what they seem."

Tuesday, April 16, 2024

Reality Is Coming

"Reality Is Coming" is the ESPN headline about what a lot of WNBA stars are saying about Caitlin Clark coming into the league. I dunno, I think women's college basketball is kinda real. It's about as real as the pro version. The WNBA doesn't earn its money in the usual sense - the league is supported by $ from the men's side. I suppose you could say that the women's league has to exist for PR purposes, and if you are willing to perform that entertainment function you are earning the money.

Is it catty to notice that none of them arrived at their WNBA jobs already hated by the women already there, as Caitlin is about to experience? 

This whole concept of The Real World is one I have objected to for fifty years, at least. My in-laws objected to the new priest because he hadn't been out in The Real World but was telling the parish how to live. Well, he'd been running a Korean orphanage. Doesn't that count as some kind of reality? I worked at a psychiatric hospital, my salary paid by taxpayers.  Was that the real world?
 

As I wrote almost 20 years ago...

Those guys in the military, who supposedly need to be told what to do and have trouble adjusting to the real world, or teachers and professors who spend their days with the young, or at-home moms who don’t get out much – I guess that’s not the real world either. If you work off-shifts and sleep when other people are up, or spend most of your day at a computer screen, how real is that? If you trade commodities but never see any actual oil or wheat, then you are clearly not connected to the “real” world. Ministers, retirees, entertainers and athletes, wealthy people, those on welfare – pretty much everyone, I guess.

When people use the phrase "real world" in that way, they seem to mean something like "Until you have faced the difficulties I have faced, you haven't seen the real world." We have convenient definitions.